اثرات خشک‌سالی بر کمیت و کیفیت تولید پسته در سیرجان

Abstract
Food security in Iran is increasingly threatened by a combination of internal and external factors. On one hand, geopolitical developments, international relations, economic sanctions, and non-climatic pressures such as population growth, declining household income, and rising food demand have complicated the process of food provision. On the other hand, climate change—manifested in rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, reduced rainfall, and recurring droughts—poses a more profound threat to agricultural production and the sustainability of national food security, as these factors directly and indirectly affect the quantity and quality of crop yields. Drought, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as central Iran, represents one of the most critical challenges facing the agricultural sector. In this context, the present study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach using a survey method to examine the effects of drought on the quantity and quality of pistachio production in Sirjan County, a major hub for pistachio cultivation in Iran. Data were collected through a researcher-designed questionnaire completed by 50 local experts, farmers, and pistachio producers. The results revealed a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.418, indicating a significant positive relationship between drought severity and changes in pistachio yield and quality. Furthermore, the standardized coefficient of determination was calculated at 0.557, suggesting that approximately 55.7% of the observed variations in pistachio production can be predicted based on drought intensity. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive management strategies and climate-responsive policies to mitigate agricultural vulnerability and enhance the resilience of Iran’s food security system. 
 
Extended Abstract
Background and Objective
Drought is an increasingly severe environmental challenge, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, where it profoundly affects ecosystems, agriculture, and rural livelihoods. Sirjan County in Kerman Province, Iran, is highly vulnerable to this phenomenon due to its climatic conditions and economic dependence on pistachio cultivation. As one of Iran’s major export crops, pistachio production is highly sensitive to water scarcity and climatic fluctuations. Drought significantly reduces both the quantity and quality of pistachio yields by limiting water availability, causing fruit drop, smaller nut size, and lower production. These impacts not only diminish farmers’ income but also disrupt the regional economy and supply chain stability.
 
Methodology
This applied and descriptive–analytical study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques. Data were collected through library research, field observations, and semi-structured interviews with local experts. The main objective was to evaluate the effects of drought on pistachio yield and quality in Sirjan County, Kerman Province.
A researcher-designed questionnaire based on a five-point Likert scale was distributed among 50 pistachio farmers, orchard owners, and traders, selected using the snowball sampling method. Data were analyzed using SPSS (version 27) to identify statistical relationships between drought and production variables.
Sirjan County, located in southwestern Kerman Province at an elevation of 1,735 m, covers 10,141 km² and lies within an alluvial plain surrounded by mountain ranges. Its strategic position along the Tehran–Bandar Abbas highway enhances its agricultural and economic significance.
 
Findings
Data analysis was conducted using SPSS (version 27) through descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive indicators, including mean, standard deviation, and frequency, summarized respondents’ demographic characteristics. Among 50 participants, 74% were male and 26% female; the majority were 30–40 years old, with varying education levels from diploma to doctoral degree.
The Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Shapiro–Wilk tests confirmed normal data distribution (p > 0.05), validating the use of parametric tests. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (α > 0.75) indicated high instrument reliability.
Inferential analysis using Pearson’s correlation and multiple regression showed a moderate, positive, and significant relationship between drought severity and pistachio production (r = 0.418, p = 0.003). The regression model was significant (F = 10.138, p < 0.05) with R = 0.418 and Adjusted R² = 0.557, revealing that 55.7% of variations in pistachio yield and quality are explained by drought. The standardized beta (β = 0.418) confirmed drought’s direct and substantial effect on production.
Overall, drought was identified as a key determinant of pistachio yield and quality in Sirjan County. Increasing drought intensity leads to reduced productivity and market quality, underscoring the need for sustainable water management, resilient crop varieties, and adaptive agricultural strategies to maintain pistachio production under arid conditions.
 
Conclusion
The findings of this study clearly demonstrate the significant impact of drought on the quantity and quality of pistachio production in Sirjan County. Statistical analyses using Pearson’s correlation and multiple linear regression confirmed a positive and significant relationship between drought intensity and declines in pistachio yield and quality (r = 0.418, p < 0.05). The adjusted coefficient of determination (Adjusted R² = 0.557) indicated that approximately 55.7% of the variation in pistachio production can be explained by drought effects, emphasizing the critical role of climatic factors in agricultural performance.
The results highlight the necessity of effective water resource management, drought adaptation policies, and sustainable farming strategies. Approaches such as optimized irrigation practices, crop pattern adjustment, use of drought-resistant cultivars, and adoption of modern irrigation technologies can substantially mitigate drought impacts and enhance production resilience.
Overall, this study contributes to a deeper scientific understanding of the drought–production nexus and provides evidence-based insights to guide policymakers, researchers, and farmers in developing climate-resilient agricultural systems. Given the projected intensification of droughts under climate change, proactive adaptation and long-term planning are essential to sustain pistachio production, strengthen agricultural resilience, and ensure regional food security.