ارائه یک چارچوب تحلیل چندمعیاره برای ارزیابی راه‌بردهای کاهش ناترازی برق

Abstract
Electricity is a cornerstone of sustainable development and national and regional security. However, power imbalances, driven by diverse factors, have emerged as a critical challenge, particularly in developing nations. Consequently, the adoption of long-term and pragmatic strategies is pivotal for mitigating such imbalances. This study aims to identify the optimal strategy for reducing power deficits in the Maroun basin through a robust Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework. Initially, a panel of domain experts was convened to define context-specific alternatives and establish evaluation criteria. The Shannon Entropy method was employed to determine the objective weights of these criteria. Subsequently, two distinct MCDM techniques—the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) and the Operational Competitiveness Rating Analysis (OCRA)—were utilized to prioritize the alternatives and validate the results through cross-method comparison. The entropy weighting analysis revealed that "Investment" is the most influential criterion, securing a weight of 0.5386 according to expert consensus. In terms of alternative ranking, the integration of photovoltaic solar power with the existing Maroun hydroelectric plant emerged as the superior solution. This hybrid approach achieved the highest priority scores of 0.9877 and 0.7384 under the ARAS and OCRA methods, respectively. These findings underscore the strategic importance of diversifying energy sources to address regional power imbalances. Furthermore, despite their differing logical frameworks, both MCDM models yielded consistent rankings, thereby confirming the robustness and reliability of the proposed decision-making process for selecting power balance mitigation scenarios. 
 
Extended Abstract
Background and Objective
Electricity is a fundamental driver of sustainable development and a key component of national and regional security, enabling economic growth, improving living standards, and supporting critical infrastructure. Yet, in many developing countries, unequal access to electricity—due to inadequate infrastructure, financial constraints, and geographic disparities—has created a persistent power imbalance. This gap not only hinders social and economic progress but also deepens inequality and undermines stability. Implementing long-term, practical, and inclusive energy strategies can significantly help bridge this divide, ensuring reliable and equitable electricity access for all.
 
Methodology
The aim of this study is to determine the best alternative to reduce the power imbalance in the Marun Basin by relying on multi-criteria analyses and providing reliable guidance to local decision-makers. In this regard, a group of relevant experts was first appointed and options suitable for the regional conditions were identified and presented by them along with evaluation criteria. The Entropy–Shannon method was used to weight the criteria in order to objectively determine the role of each criterion based on the available information. Then, to prioritize the options and compare the results, two multi-criteria methods, including Additive Ratio Compromise Assessment (ARAS) and Operational Competitiveness Ranking Analysis (OCRA), were used in two different approaches; using several different methods and approaches, in addition to increasing the validity and transparency of the analysis, allows for examining the robustness of the results and increasing confidence in the final recommendations. Ultimately, the aim is for the study results to provide policymakers and stakeholders with an operational and strategic basis for reducing the power imbalance in the Marun Basin.
 
Findings
The results obtained from the Entropy–Shannon weighting method show that the investment criterion with a weight of 0.5386 has more than half of the total importance in evaluating the options from the experts' perspective; in other words, the collected information indicates that economic considerations and capital costs play a decisive role in the selection of solutions. Furthermore, adding a solar photovoltaic power plant to the Maroon hydroelectric power plant is recognized as the first option in both multi-criteria methods; in the ARAS method, this option has obtained a high score of 0.9877 and in the OCRA method, a score of 0.7384. The difference in the values ​​of the scores is due to the different scales and calculation mechanisms of the two methods; a high ARAS score indicates a very high utility compared to other options, and the OCRA score also confirms the relative superiority of the same option with a different evaluation method. The overall conclusion is that combining solar generation with hydro capacity, through resource diversification, enhances daily generation, reduces regional fluctuations, and increases grid reliability; this combination can lead to reduced need for fossil fuel-based peaking generators, improved supply stability, and reduced emissions. It is recommended for policymakers and investors to prioritize such projects in capital planning and further economic-technical studies (such as sensitivity analysis, grid considerations, and storage) to realize operational and financial benefits.
 
Conclusion
The present results show that the application of two multi-criteria methods to rank electricity imbalance reduction scenarios, despite differences in evaluation logic and computational mechanisms, led to a single result. This convergence is important in several ways: first, each of the methods—with different assumptions, weightings, and aggregation formulas—provided similar results independently of the data and criteria, which is a strong indication of the stability of the result. Second, the agreement between the methods reduces the possibility of error or bias due to the choice of a particular method and strengthens the methodological validity of the study. From a scientific perspective, the agreement of the results indicates the “reliability” of the analysis; that is, it shows that the findings are reliable beyond the sensitivity to a particular algorithm. From a practical and decision-making perspective, such convergence sends a clear message to policymakers and investors: the proposed prioritization is likely to be effective in practice and can be the basis for capital planning decisions and pilot implementation. However, to strengthen this conclusion, it is recommended that complementary studies such as sensitivity analysis, testing of different scenarios, detailed cost-benefit estimates and wider consultation with local stakeholders be carried out to properly assess the technical, financial and social aspects of implementation. Overall, the convergence of the results of the two multi-criteria methods not only increases the confidence in the findings, but also shows that the choice of this strategy has strong support from both scientific and practical perspectives and can be a reliable starting point for further actions at the regional level.