Analyzing power plant capacity expansion alternatives with multi-criteria decision-making methods

Extended Abstract
Background and Objective
Energy supply, especially electricity for various consumption sectors such as household, commercial, and agricultural electricity, is of great importance as one of the goals of sustainable development. Therefore, monitoring and updating electricity generation technology in power plants to meet electricity demand, considering its various dimensions, is one of the most important measures to achieve sustainable development.

Methodology
The present study used the multi-criteria decision-making method of multi-interval assessment (TRUST) to prioritize expanding electricity generation capacity in the Marun basin. For this purpose, first, considering the conditions of the Marun hydropower plant and also investigation the field conditions, three alternatives were proposed by experts, including: (1) adding a solar power plant to the hydropower plant, (2) adding a combined cycle power plant to the hydropower plant, and (3) combining three hydropower, solar and combined cycle power plants to increase electricity generation capacity. To evaluate the alternatives, a set of main criteria, including economic, environmental, technical, and energy security criteria, and 10 related sub-criteria, was determined. In the next step, the questionnaire related to the criterion importance method based on the internal correlation of criteria (Critic) was provided to the experts for weighting the criteria and sub-criteria and the TRUST ranking method. In the final step, the final weight of the sub-criteria and prioritization of the alternatives for increasing electricity generation were extracted.

Findings
The results of the Critic method show that the economic criterion with a weight of 0.340 and the greenhouse gas emission sub-criterion with a weight of 0.156 are the most important criteria and sub-criterions, respectively. The results of the TRUST method also show that combining three hydroelectric, solar, and combined cycle power plants with a score of 0.047 is the best alternative for increasing the electricity generation capacity at the Marun power plant.

Conclusion
The Currently, the water and electricity consuming sectors, including the domestic, agricultural, and environmental sectors in the Marun Basin, are facing numerous challenges in meeting demand. Continuing the current energy management trend could lead to more severe crises in this region. The results of the present study can be the basis for electricity supply policies in the coming years in the Maroon Basin, in a way that ensures the security of electricity supply.